A Case For State of Louisiana As Being The Next Epicenter For Battle Against COVID-19
The United States has the highest count of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the entire world, beating Italy and China on March 26th, 2020. As of March 27th, the U.S. has surpassed 100,000 active cases. Officials believe the worst is yet to come, so as the number of active cases continue to rise in the coming days, it is paramount for the country to prepare for the worst case scenario so that the officials can plan for contingencies and mobilize resources accordingly.
The goal is to devise a forecasting model geared towards forecasting the apex of the curve. In order to do this a lot of data pertaining to a patient’s history would be required. Data such as the general demographic of a city, the percent population that have traveled to high intensity regions since the year started, proximity to patients that have contracted coronavirus to assess community spread and personal risk and finally percent population with pre-existing health conditions. While efforts are being made to consolidate this data open sourced, publicly available data from the Johns Hopkins University is being utilized to understand implications of medical resources inventory for cities with known apex predictions.
The highest cases in the U.S. are confirmed in the city of New York. NYC having the highest reported cases correlates with the city’s reputation of being densely populated year round. Another city that received a heavy influx of people, approximately 1.4 million people, was New Orleans, Louisiana in the months of February and March during Mardi Gras. While NYC’s population is 8.5 million and New Orleans is only half a million, The ratio of confirmed cases per 100,000 people followed a similar trend between both the cities as summarized in Table 1. Day 1 represents the first day both the cities reached a ratio of 1 active case per 100,000 people.
Table 1. Time series comparison of active cases per 100,000 people in highly populated U.S. cities in the last two months: New York City and New Orleans
As per the Governor of the State of New York, NYC is predicted to reach its apex in three weeks’ time, around mid-April of 2020. While no such official statement has been made for New Orleans, seeing the trend in Figure 1, which plots the number of active cases per 100,000 people since the first confirmed case in the respective city, New Orleans will reach its apex approximately 10 days after New York does.
Currently NYC and New Orleans’s medical inventory include:
· 3 ICU beds for every 10,000 people over age 16, while New Orleans has about 5.5 ICU beds according to The Washington Post.
· As far as ventilators, FEMA has provided NYC with 2000 ventilators while New Orleans only has access to about 625.
However, neither the number of ICU beds, nor the ventilators will help these cities prepare for the apex, as New York Mayor Bill de Blasio believes at its apex 50% of NYC population will have COVID-19 and estimates they will need 15,000 ventilators. Understanding the fact that on average, only 6% of COVID-19 patients need hospitalization, the need for 15,000 ventilators just for the NYC proves the magnitude of the strain of COVID-19 on the health care systems.
The resources available to New Orleans are much less than NYC. It is also a cause of concern that out of the current 3315 cases in New Orleans, 900 people were hospitalized of which 336 people are on ventilators. That is nearly 10% of people on ventilators in New Orleans compared to the 3.6% requiring ventilators in NYC.
With a similar trend in number of cases with NYC, New Orleans will likely find 50% of its population with COVID-19 at its apex. Overwhelming New Orleans hospitals will put strain on neighboring cities as well as states; specifically Texas, Mississippi and Arkansas. It is unclear how these cities will be able to provide the medical attention needed by each patient. Especially those needing hospital care with such incredibly limited resources. New Orleans’s current capacity of 625 ventilators is projected to be 100% utilized by 4th of April as illustrated in Figure 2.
A few potential solutions to relieve the healthcare system of New Orleans are:
· Set up temporary hospitals with 11,515 ICU beds in neighboring counties. New Orleans already has 5.5 beds per 10,000 people, with an assumption that at its apex 195,000 people, roughly 50% of New Orleans population will have COVID-19 of which the worldwide average of 6% will need hospitalization. That is 11,730 people requiring hospital care.
· Have emergency medical naval ships parked along the gulf of Mexico to provide additional support to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida
Conducting a similar trendline for other major U.S. cities will likely produce similar results with most cities achieving its apex by mid to end April so leveraging other states resources will not be a viable option either. Major brands have offered to make masks, scrubs and other preventative, safety equipment for front-line health care providers while car manufacturers have offered to build ventilators.
Tackling COVID-19 will be an “all hands on deck” approach, and each passing day puts more weight on this statement then ever before.
Chirality Research Inc. is a data science start up that analyzes structured, non-structured and real-time data, to provide actionable solutions to help our clients manage their day to day operations or devise a roadmap for their long-term strategies.
Dr. Huzeifa Ismail, Founder, has more than 10 years of experience addressing cross-industry challenges in the area of engineering and data science. Ismail holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Brandeis University and a PhD degree in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and has authored numerous technical articles and patents.
Malik Nabeel Aamer, Data Engineer, uses his data science skills and formal training in industrial engineering to build actionable, digital solutions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/23/map-places-america-with-most-fewest-icu-beds/
