A Practical Approach to Opening Up the Economy
The real battle against COVID-19 will begin in the aftermath of the virus, when the case counts are finally tapering off and the most critical questions changes from “How do we flatten the curve and prepare for the peak?” to “Are we ready to re-open economy? If so, how do we mitigate risks of an outbreak again?”
As the initiated lockdown periods approach 30 to 40 day mark for 45 of the 50 U.S. States, the shift in urgency to resolve the latter questions has become more noticeable. On April 16th, the president of the Unites States (POTUS) unveiled general guidelines for states to follow while reopening economy. President Trump predicted that 29 states were ready to open economy. The World Health Organization (WHO), has its own set of recommendations for when states are ready to reopen economy.
The key difference between the guidelines proposed by POTUS and WHO’s recommendations are the conditions in which the states are allowed to reopen:
· The Washington Post reported that as per POTUS, states can only reopen after seeing a decrease in the number of coronavirus cases over a consecutive 14 day period.
· A study published in the New York Times reported that WHO advised that for states wishing to reopen it should ensure their testing capacity to be such that the proportion of new confirmed positive cases amongst the total daily tests conducted should not exceed a 10% threshold limit. A higher ratio would mean that the testing capacity at the time is below the required level.
To assess which states were ready to reopen within the next week, confirmed cases data and testing data was collected for all 50 states for a period of last 21–23 days. For all states, trends were analyzed to determine the trajectory of confirmed cases and the ratio of confirmed cases to testing levels. In general, POTUS required a downward trendline from the peak, while WHO was checking for ratio of cases to testing to be under 10%. A buffer of 2% was added as well as leniency in increased ratios for 2 days. If the ratio exceeded 12% for more than 2 consecutive days after achieving the threshold 10%, the corresponding date was no longer considered to be the peak. The forecasted reopening date was determined to be 15 days after respective conditions were met for both POTUS guidelines and WHO. For instances where testing data was not available at a daily level, the total case count data and total testing data to date was utilized to calculate the ratio in order to determine readiness. If this ratio, calculated with totals to date was under 10%, a forecasted reopening was deemed to be the first week of May. Table 1 summarizes the results for all 50 states.
Table 1. Summary of analysis for 50 states and the forecasted date to re-open economy based on POTUS guidelines and WHO guidelines
POTUS peak day was the day with the highest number of observed COVID-19 cases, while the peak day for WHO was determined to be the first day the ratio of case count to test count dropped below 10% indicating a testing rate 10 times greater than the rate of contraction of the coronavirus. According to the POTUS guidelines, 27 states qualified to reopen in the second last week of April. The WHO’s conditions are evidently more strict as only 19 states qualified to reopen in the same timeline. POTUS guidelines are less robust as there is a risk of states to reduce testing to show a decrease in case count over time in order to reopen earlier.
Another mode of judging readiness of a state to reopen economy is factoring in for social distancing practices employed by it’s population. States that seriously participated in social distancing are going to be in a better position to reopen safely, and sooner as opposed to states that observed little to no social distancing. Unacast, a company that specializes in human mobility data built a social distancing scoreboard to rank, at a county level, on how strictly it’s population for following social distancing practices.
As with all data science problems, granularity in data will affect its analyses. For example, Texas as a state reached it’s peak on the 10th of April, with a forecasted date to reopen on 25th April following POTUS guidelines. It reached the threshold ratio of 9.77% on 13th of April, suggesting a forecasted date of reopening on the 28th of April as per WHO’s guidelines. Despite these promising forecasts, if county level data were to be analyzed, none of the top 10 highest impacted counties in Texas have reached its peak with either guidelines. As summarized in Table 2, all of the top 10 counties are still experiencing increasing numbers in COVID-19 cases.
Table 2. Top 10 Texas counties data reveal none of the counties qualify to reopen economy
The call to re-open economy will be a state level decision so while assessing county level data is not critical it gives a good sense of how ready a state as a whole is to consider reopening. It would also be beneficial to analyze data for top 10 countries in the world, three of which have lifted restrictions to a certain degree. However, It may be too soon to draw conclusions on how the reopening affected case count. Table 3 shows a list of top 10 countries in the world with the highest coronavirus case count.
Table 3. Top 10 countries case count and testing data with forecasted days to reopen economy
Spain, Italy and Germany have begun reopening their economies in the form of functioning service shops, coffee shops, and small retail store. Public places such as libraries and gyms are still restricted. Second week of May will provide insights on how easing up on restrictions have impacted the spread of coronavirus in these countries.
It is not recommended for any State to reopen economy unless they qualify both, POTUS and WHO’s guidelines. Whenever the U.S. states do lift restrictions, it should be done extremely gradually, assessing impact as more and more restrictions are lifted. Furthermore, states should ensure they have sufficient test kits and medical supplies at hand to monitor the potential of an outbreak in its early stages.
Texas has reopened all of its public parks, and have allowed retail stores to open with curbside pick ups and to-go orders. Texas has also made masks mandatory.
A few recommendations for opening corporate offices:
· Abandon open concept floor plans for the remainder of the year and establish cubicles in work place
· Co-ordinate staff to alternate coming into the office. For example: 50% staff come in to the office 3 days a week, and work from home for the rest and vice versa
· Employees must maintain 6 ft distance from each other, and if possible set up work stations in alternate cubicles
· Employees must wear masks while in an office space
A critical aspect of the economy is transportation, extra precautions should be taken when using any modes of transportation other than a personal vehicle:
· If using public transportation, 6 ft distance should be maintained
· Gloves and face masks should be worn
· Occupy alternate seats in alternate rows if possible for buses and subways
· Avoid carpooling with coworkers, friends etc.
· Avoid ride share services like Uberpool, and LYFT Shared and choose to ride alone
Fortunately, schools have closed for the remainder of the year. However, in the event of a lack of coronavirus vaccination when the schools reopen, following are a few recommendations for safe reopening of schools:
· Students should occupy alternate seats in alternate rows to create a bubble of 6 ft space around them
· Schools should have multiple Recess times and split the student body in groups for each time to limit large group interactions
· Increase school buses to allow students to occupy alternate seats in alternate rows ensuring safe distancing
· Students should be required to wear masks, especially during Recess and transport to and from school
To conclude, regardless of when each of the U.S. states decide to reopen, and whether they judge their readiness based on POTUS guidelines or WHO’s guidelines, the important part is how they reopen. Failure to open gradually and safely may lead the economy back to square one, scrambling to flatten the curve all over again.
References:
Unacast — Social Distancing Scoreboard
Washington Post — POTUS Guidelines
The New York Times — WHO Guidelines
Chirality Research Inc. is a data science start up that analyzes structured, non-structured and real-time data, to provide actionable solutions to help our clients manage their day to day operations or devise a roadmap for their long-term strategies.
Malik Nabeel, Data Engineer, uses his data science skills and formal training in industrial engineering to build actionable solutions.
Ama Motiwala, Data Scientist, has found a niche in the blend between engineering practices and data science principles introducing digital solutions to engineering problems.
Dr. Huzeifa Ismail, Founder, has more than 10 years of experience addressing cross-industry challenges in the area of engineering and data science. Ismail holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Brandeis University and a PhD degree in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and has authored numerous technical articles and patents.
